UFC Betting Trends by Division | 2021 Recap and Review: The Over in the UFC men’s featherweight division went 42-15, for +14.51 units profit in 2021, and was one of the most profitable betting trends of the year.
Meanwhile, the betting favorite in the UFC heavyweight division cashed at a 76.9% rate, going 30-9 for +7.19 units profit on the moneyline. On the female side, the trend from last year continues on, as the Over in the UFC women’s bantamweight division improves to 31-4 over the last two years, after going 12-5 in 2021.
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Big Picture UFC Handicapping Pays Off
Sports bettors have come to rely on various forms of statistical data trends over the years since the rise of popularity in advanced metrics and analytics. The home/road splits, and the various ATS and O/U betting trends that bettors in team sports have been using for years can also be used in the world of combat sports betting.
What most MMA bettors don’t realize is that even though fighting is not a team sport, the same ideas of tracking trends and situational outcomes can be just as relevant and useful when betting on sports in the cage or ring, as they would be on the court or field.
The purpose of arranging this historical data is to create a statistical model of probability for each outcome for any given bout in any given UFC division. It is also for the purpose of identifying when there is value betting on, or against a specific outcome, in relation to the betting odds and the probability of that outcome occuring or not occurring, when weighed against the historical data.
Whether it be the favorite, the underdog, the over, or the under. There is quantifiable historical data for each UFC division that can be analyzed to isolate value and identify variance. Let’s take a look at the entire year of 2021 UFC betting, and highlight the most profitable and probable betting trends for each UFC division.
2021 UFC Betting Trends
| Since 2021 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | 320-177-10 | 64.4% | -6.59u |
| Dogs | 177-320-10 | 35.6% | -10.84u |
| Over | 300-203-6 | 59.6% | +9.79u |
| Under | 203-300-6 | 40.4% | -30.64u |
| Fight Goes Distance | 257-247-5 | 51% | +18.94u |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | 247-257-5 | 49% | -22.45u |
There were 509 UFC bouts in the year 2021, with 5 of those bouts ending in a no-contest, and 21 of them being competed at a contracted non-division catchweight. Apart from those 26, the remaining 483 bouts in 2021 were contested across the four UFC women’s divisions and the eight UFC men’s divisions.
The betting favorite won 64.4% of fights in 2021, going 320-117-10 (5 draws, 5 NCs), for a loss of -6.59 units profit. The most profitable betting trend of the year was the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop which went 257-247-5 for +18.94 units profit, while the Over cashed at a 59.6% rate, turning a profit of +9.79 units.
UFC Betting Trends: Coin Flip Fights
The coin flip favorite is a chalk favorite that is lined between -150 and even money. The reason this is reffered to as a ‘coin flip’ is that most of the time, a fight in this range will be much closer than what the odds indicate. While a majority of high-level UFC fights are contested with distinct parity, the bookmakers are always going to be inclined to take action on both sides.
While a fight may have the true odds and implied probability of 50% on both sides, the betting market is going to come in and skew that line away from the -110 range, closer to the range of -150. This is what defines a ‘coin flip fight’ in this set of historical data.
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favorites | 91-101-5 | 47.4% | -10.38u |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 101-91-5 | 52.6% | +11.66u |
Fading the betting favorite in the range of -150 or higher in the UFC in 2021 turned out to be a very profitable betting trend. With 197 ‘coin flip’ bouts in the UFC in 2021, the plus-money side cashed at a 52.6% rate, turning an impressive profit of +11.66 units since January of 2021.
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UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 8-5 | 61.5% | +4.36u | +100 |
| Under | 13-17 | 43.3% | +9.29u | +131 |
| Dogs | 14-16 | 46.7% | +7.02u | +114 |
The plus money side in the UFC women’s strawweight division has been a very lucrative one to back in 2021. While the favorite at women’s 115lbs won 53% of fights in 2021, the underdog was the far more profitable side to back, going 14-16 for +7.02 units on the moneyline.
Meanwhile, the Under cashed in 43% of fights at strawweight in 2021, going 13-17 for +9.29 units profit.A $100 bettor who backed the Under in each strawweight bout in 2021, turned a profit of +$31 per fight, win or lose.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC women’s strawweight division was Marina Rodriguez, who defeated Amanda Ribas by knock out at UFC 257 as a +313 underdog.
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favs | 8-5 | 61.5% | +1.73u | -150 |
| Favorites | 17-8 | 68% | +2.68 | -213 |
| Over | 15-10 | 60% | +1.05u | -150 |
The betting favorite continued to dominate the UFC men’s flyweight division in 2021, cashing at a 68% rate for +2.68 units moneyline. With a 17-8 record, the betting favorite at men’s 125lbs has been a valuable side to back over the last year, at the price of -213 or better. Meanwhile, the Over cashed at a 60% rate in 2021, going 15-10 for +1.05 units profit.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC men’s flyweight division in 2021 was Malcolm Gordon, who defeated Fransico Figueiredo by way of unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 31, cashing as a +260 dog.
UFC Women’s Flyweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 8-8-1 | 50% | +1.8u | +100 |
| Under | 16-25 | 39% | +3.63u | +156 |
| Favorites | 25-15-1 | 62.5% | -2.53u | -167 |
The betting favorite cashed at a 62.5% rate in the UFC women’s flyweight division in 2021 but failed to turn a profit, with a marginal loss of -2.53 units on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Under cashed at a 39% rate at women’s 125lbs in 2021, going 16-25 for a profit of +3.63 units in the 2021 calendar year. Based on the betting trend and using implied probability, the Under was the +EV side to back in 2021 at the price of +156 or better.s
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC women’s flyweight division in 2021 was Luana Carolina, who cashed as a +210 underdog against Poliana Botelho at UFC Vegas 25.
UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 12-7-1 | 63.2% | +7.21u | -172 |
| Over | 35-23 | 60.3% | +1.98u | -152 |
| Favorites | 36-21-1 | 63.2% | -4.53u | -172 |
The favorite in the UFC men’s bantamweight division cashed at a 63.2% rate in 2021 but failed to turn a profit with a marginal loss of -4.53 units on the moneyline. However, based on the betting trend and implied probability, the chalk side at men’s bantamweight had value at the price of -172 or better in 2021. Meanwhile, the Over cashed at a 60.3% rate in 2021, going 35-23 for +1.98 units profit.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC men’s bantamweight division in 2021 was Davey Grant, who picked up the 2nd round knock-out victory over Jonathan Martinez at UFC Vegas 21.
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Dogs | 8-9 | 47.1% | +10.34u | +113 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 4-3 | 57.1% | +1.67u | +100 |
| Over | 12-5 | 70.6% | +0.21 | -240 |
With Julianna Pena cashing as the biggest underdog in the UFC of 2021, the plus-money side in the female 135lbs division in the UFC closed out 2021 as one of the most profitable sides to back in the promotion.
Pena closed out the year in the UFC women’s bantamweight division cashing as a +900 underdog against Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. With the win, the underdog at women’s 135lbs improved to 8-9 for a profit of +10.34 units on the moneyline.
Meanwhile, the Over cashed at a 70.6s s% rate in 2021, going 12-5 for a marginal profit of +0.21 units across 43 UFC events.
UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 17-5-1 | 77.3% | +16.12u | +100 |
| Over | 42-15 | 73.7% | +14.51u | -280 |
| Dogs | 25-31-1 | 44.6% | +6.51u | +124 |
The Over in the UFC men’s featherweight division cashed at one of the highest rates in 2021 at 73.7%. A $100 bettor who backed the Over in each of the 57 UFC men’s featherweight bouts in 2021 went 42-15, for +$1451 profit, an ROI of +$25 per fight, win or lose.
Meanwhile, the underdog was the profitable side to back at men’s 145lbs in the UFC in 2021. The plus-money side went 25-31-1, for a profit of +6.51 units on the moneyline.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC men’s featherweight division in 2021 was Nate Landwehr, who cashed as a +320 underdog against Ludovit Klein at UFC Vegas 40.
UFC Women’s Featherweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| Under | 2-3 | 40% | +0.4u | +150 |
| Over | 3-2 | 60% | +0.33u | -150 |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 1-1 | 50% | +0.20u | +100 |
| Favorites | 3-2 | 60% | -0.80u | -150 |
There were only 5 UFC women’s featherweight bouts in 2021, with the Under cashing in 3 of the 5, turning a marginal profit of +0.4 units.
The Under has been the most profitable betting trend in the UFC women’s featherweight division over the last four years, going 13-9 for +4.03 units since 2017. A $100 bettor who has backed the Under in every UFC women’s featherweight bout since the division’s inception in 2017, has turned a profit of +$18 per fight, win or lose.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC women’s featherweight division in 2021 was Norma Dumont, who cashed as a +176 underdog against Felicia Spencer at UFC Vegas 27.
UFC Lightweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favs | 17-9 | 65.4% | +4.59u | -150 |
| Under | 30-32 | 48.4% | +6.23u | +107 |
| Favorites | 42-19-1 | 68.9% | +4.35u | -222 |
The Under in the UFC lightweight division cashed at a 48.4% rate in 2021, going 30-32 for +6.23 units profit. A $100 bettor who backed the Under in each bout at lightweight in the UFC in 2021 turned a profit of +$10 per fight, win or lose.
Meanwhile, the betting favorite was dominant in 2021, cashing at a 68.9% rate, turning a profit of +4.35 units on the moneyline with a record of 42-19-1.
The biggest underdog to cash in the UFC lightweight division in 2021 was Dustin Poirier, who cashed as a +300 underdog against Conor McGregor at UFC 257 in January of 2021.
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UFC Welterweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Dogs | 9-10 | 47.4% | +2.4u | +100 |
| Over | 34-25 | 57.6% | +1.81u | -136 |
| Favorites | 39-20 | 66.1% | +1.08u | -195 |
The Over in the UFC welterweight division cashed at a 57.6% rate in 2021, going 34-25 for a marginal profit of +1.81 units. Meanwhile, the betting favorite won two out of every three welterweight bouts in 2021, going 39-20 for a slight +1.08 units profit.
The biggest underdog to win in the UFC welterweight division in 2021 was Li Jingliang, who defeated Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC on ABC 1 as a +271 betting underdog.
UFC Middleweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favs | 18-11 | 62.1% | +3.83u | -164 |
| Over | 34-25 | 57.6% | +3.55u | -136 |
| Favorites | 38-21 | 64.4% | +3.48u | -181 |
The favorite cashed at a 64.4% rate in the UFC middleweight division in 2021, going 38-21 for +3.48 units profit on the moneyline. Based on the betting trend and implied probability, the chalk fighter at middleweight in the UFC had value in 2021 at the price of -181 or better. Meanwhile, the Over went 34-25, cashing at a 57.6% rate for a profit of +3.55 units.
The biggest underdog to win in the UFC middleweight division in 2021 was Gerald Meerschaert, who cashed as a +500 underdog by defeating Makhmud Muradov by submission at UFC Vegas 35.
UFC Light-Heavyweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favs | 9-4-1 | 69.2% | +3.25u | -150 |
| Dogs | 14-21-1 | 40% | +6.78u | +150 |
| Over | 19-16 | 54.3% | +3.3u | -119 |
The underdog in the UFC light heavyweight division cashed at just a 40% rate in 2021 but still managed to turn a considerable profit of +6.78 units on the moneyline. A $100 bettor who backed the plus-money fighter across all 37 fights at light heavyweight in 2021 went 14-21-1, turning a profit of +$19 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, the Over cashed at a 54.3% rate in the UFC light heavyweight division in 2021, going 19-16 for +3.3 units profit.
The biggest underdog to win in the UFC light heavyweight division in 2021 was Marcin Pachnio, who cashed as a +330 underdog against Khalil Rountree at UFC 257 in January of 2021.
UFC Heavyweight Division
| 2021 UFC Betting Trends | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
| ‘Coin Flip’ Favs | 9-3 | 75% | +4.16u | -150 |
| Favorites | 30-9 | 76.9% | +7.19u | -333 |
| Under | 21-18 | 53.8% | +1.97u | -116 |
The betting favorite cashed at a dominant 76.9% rate in the UFC heavyweight division in 2021, going 30-9 for +7.19 units profit on the moneyline. With that, a $100 bettor who backed the chalk fighter in every heavyweight bout in the UFC in 2021 turned a profit of +$18 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, the Under cashed at a 53.8% rate in the heavyweight division in 2021, going 21-18 for +1.97 units profit.
The biggest underdog to win in the UFC heavyweight division in 2021 was Derrick Lewis, who cashed as a +445 betting underdog at UFC Vegas 19.
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